Ali Larijani: A Pragmatic Conservative’s Struggle for Influence in Iran

Ali Larijani, currently serving as the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran, is navigating a complex political landscape marked by skepticism and criticism. Since resuming this role in August 2025, Larijani’s influence is under scrutiny, especially regarding his ability to command the loyalty of the Revolutionary Guards.

Historically, Larijani has held various significant positions, including Minister and Speaker of Parliament, and has been a multiple presidential candidate. His political trajectory has positioned him as a pragmatic conservative in the eyes of Western powers, yet this label does not shield him from domestic discontent.

Critics like Mahnaz Shirali argue that Larijani is widely disliked among Iranians, describing him as a “criminal against humanity.” This sentiment complicates his standing as a negotiator with Western powers, where his past involvement in negotiations has been both a strength and a source of contention.

Azadeh Kian, a professor emeritus of sociology, highlights the precariousness of Larijani’s authority, stating, “It is not obvious that his orders will actually be followed, particularly by the Revolutionary Guards, who are a state within a state.” This raises questions about the effectiveness of his leadership and the potential for genuine reform within the regime.

Moreover, Kian warns that Larijani’s position could be precarious; she notes, “If the Americans or the Israelis wanted to eliminate him, he would be eliminated like the others.” This underscores the high stakes involved in Iranian politics, where power dynamics can shift rapidly and violently.

Despite these challenges, Larijani’s political weight may still allow him to negotiate a departure from the regime rather than embody its future. Observers remain divided on whether he can leverage his experience to navigate the turbulent waters of Iranian politics effectively.

As the political landscape continues to evolve, the future of Ali Larijani remains uncertain. Details remain unconfirmed regarding his next moves and the broader implications for Iran’s governance and international relations.